By the end of this decade, the UK could face one of the most severe shortages of skilled mid-level professionals in a generation.
New research from Robert Walters shows 58% of business leaders say it is already harder to recruit these crucial managers than it was three years ago. A quarter are paying a premium to secure them.
For most companies this is a serious challenge. For family businesses, the stakes are even higher. Mid-level managers are not just operational leaders. They are often the custodians of culture and continuity. Lose them and you risk more than short-term disruption.
A cycle we keep repeating
This shortage is not new. When entry-level hiring slows, the gap appears three to five years later when the cohort who should be stepping into mid-level roles simply does not exist. Skills become scarce, salaries rise and competition intensifies.
We have seen this before.
- After 9/11, uncertainty and market disruption prompted hiring freezes that created a leadership vacuum.
- The Global Financial Crisis cut graduate intake sharply, leaving a skills gap years later.
- COVID-19 reduced early-career recruitment and by 2022 mid-level salaries had risen by five percent in a single year, with finance, law, technology and engineering among the hardest hit.
Why this time is different
The pressures are now arriving all at once:
- COVID-19 reduced graduate intake, delayed promotions and disrupted career progress.
- AI and automation are stripping out entry roles before young hires can gain on-the-job learning.
- Rising employment costs, including National Insurance and the minimum wage, are tightening budgets for recruitment, training and development.
- Tax changes to BPR and APR have made some family enterprises more cautious about investment.
- A low-growth economy has triggered redundancies in some sectors while others face acute skills shortages.
Together, these forces are setting the stage for a severe mid-level talent shortage between 2028 and 2030.
“Continuity does not start in the middle. It starts with who you hire at the beginning.”
Why family businesses will feel it more
In any organisation, mid-level leaders are the bridge between strategy and delivery. In a family business they often carry an added weight, preserving the culture, values and trust built over decades.
If these roles remain unfilled the effects can be swift. Senior leaders get dragged into operational firefighting. Succession plans stall because the next in line is not ready. Knowledge and relationships, developed over years, can vanish overnight when a valued manager accepts another offer.
This is not just a hiring issue. It is a continuity issue.
A built-in advantage if it is used well
The good news is that many family businesses already have what the rising generation of employees say they value most:
- Purpose that feels genuine.
- A sense of service to the community, not just shareholders.
- A commitment to sustainability that is real, not cosmetic.
However, these strengths only help if they are visible. Too often they are left unspoken or assumed. In a competitive market, that is a missed opportunity.
By making them part of recruitment, reinforcing them during onboarding and living them in daily leadership, family businesses can turn these qualities into a powerful reason for people to stay, even when other offers are on the table.
“The next five years will separate the businesses who invest early from those who pay more for less.”
Steps to take now
Avoiding the worst of the coming crunch will take more than hope. The most resilient family businesses will:
- Rebuild the pipeline by committing to graduate and early-career recruitment, even in lean years.
- Develop from within through structured programmes that prepare mid-level managers for senior roles.
- Pay competitively and review regularly to ensure salary is not the reason people leave.
- Make strengths visible by highlighting purpose, values and community impact in every stage of employment.
- Plan ahead for which roles will be hardest to fill between 2028 and 2030, and create contingencies now.
Looking ahead
The mid-level talent crunch is not inevitable, but it is coming. For family businesses, the choice is clear. Invest now in the people who will lead tomorrow, or risk finding yourself in a bidding war for the few who remain.
Continuity is built from the start, in who you hire, how you develop them and the reasons they choose to stay.
About the Author
David Twiddle is a family business owner and entrepreneur who has founded, built and exited two businesses, David brings over 25 years of experience advising owners and boards on leadership, succession and long-term growth. He is the Founder and Managing Partner of TWYD & Co, a specialist in leadership appointments, succession planning and board alignment for family businesses, family offices and founders